Synthesizing YIMBYism and Popularism
It might be possible
As someone whose primary interests are urban planning, data analytics/data science, and politics, it is no surprise that I pay a lot of attention to discourse on both housing policy and the concept of “popularism.” An Echelon Insights poll that asked about views on YIMBY vs NIMBY housing policy, therefore, swamped my Twitter timeline yesterday in both the housing discourse and popularism discourse corners, and I have a lot of thoughts on what I’ve read.
The poll shows a 50% - 35% margin in favor of NIMBYism. Personally, I don’t doubt that NIMBYism is the plurality/majority position. Unfortunately, there is a reason that YIMBYism is not generally the status quo – there are a whole lot of people who don’t want it to be! I have seen a lot of people whose housing takes I admire deny that YIMBYism is unpopular; despite being a YIMBY myself, I think they’re wrong. Nonetheless, I have some criticisms of the poll’s methodology and I think that simply dismissing YIMBYism as yet another good but unpopular and politically dangerous policy is a massive oversimplification of the situation.
About That Poll
YIMBYism mixes culturally liberal *priorities* with economically conservative *policies*: reduce regulation to make housing more affordable, densify cities, and make access to transit easier – while NIMBYism mixes culturally conservative *priorities* with economically regulatory *policies*: regulate zoning and housing review to protect property values, homeownership, “neighborhood character,” and, yes, often thinly-veiled racism.
This polling question frustrated me because it specifically pits the left/liberal-YIMBY argument against the right-NIMBY argument. I would have liked to see a poll that tested all four possible combinations, because all four groups are seen in the wild:
Left/liberal-YIMBY vs left/liberal-NIMBY
Left/liberal-YIMBY vs right-NIMBY
Right-YIMBY vs left/liberal-NIMBY
Right -NIMBY vs right-NIMBY
YIMBYism is Probably Unpopular: Here’s Why
As I noted earlier, I do not believe YIMBYism is popular. I don’t expect the average of these four polling questions to be favorable for YIMBYs, but I suspect that the left/liberal-YIMBY vs right-NIMBY question may have skewed the results.
The reason I believe most Americans are NIMBYs is that most Americans simply prefer homeownership and suburban/rural areas to urban areas:
although “suburbs” are hard to define, by most reasonable definitions most Americans live in a suburban neighborhood, and by any definition a majority live in suburban or rural areas
about 65% of Americans own their own home
although the above two numbers are skewed *by* NIMBY policies, most Americans say they prefer living in a community where houses are “larger and farther apart, but schools, stores and restaurants are several miles away” to living in a community where houses are “smaller and closer to each other, but schools, stores and restaurants are within walking distance”
But here’s the catch: all of those are the conservative cultural priorities of NIMBYism. The regulations themselves do not factor in here. The question asked by Echelon, which describes the YIMBY position in the language of “affordable housing” and “close to public transit” and the NIMBY position in the language of “ensuring property values don’t go down” and “[preserving] existing neighborhood character” phrases it in a way that emphasizes these cultural priorities. I suspect a phrasing of the YIMBY position that emphasizes the burdensome regulations to housing construction and the economic effects would remain unpopular but be much closer to even. Americans love suburbs, but they don’t love burdensome red tape that hurts the economy.
Indeed, there is polling that asks about exactly this sort of thing; unfortunately, the polling only presents a steelman argument for the YIMBY side, likely meaning there is acquiescence bias, but it shows the economic arguments for YIMBYism as explicitly *popular*.
The Good News for YIMBYs
I do not want to sugarcoat this poll for YIMBYs, but there were a few silver linings: when phrased the way the poll was, Democrats, urbanites, Blacks, and younger people were about even in YIMBY vs NIMBY, and Hispanics were clearly in favor. These are exactly the groups who dominate the big, expensive cities where YIMBYism is most desperately needed. Indeed, in New York City’s Mayoral election, Eric Adams, Kathryn Garcia, and Andrew Yang all ran very different campaigns, but each had their own form of YIMBY policy/rhetoric, and they were three of the top four Democratic candidates and between them won a wide range of demographic groups.
Housing policy is fundamentally a local issue, and the changes are most needed in places like California and New York City – where this poll suggests even the cultural priority arguments are probably politically acceptable. Considering YIMBYism – particularly cultural YIMBYism – is likely unpopular, I do not believe national Democrats should emphasize it. But they don’t need to! It’s not a national issue, and the places where it’s most toxic are (with a few exceptions) the places where it’s least necessary. And there’s a further popularist aspect to this …
The “Blue Cities” Factor
Consider: a favorite trope of both parties is to (justifiably!) note the policy failures in states and localities run by the opposite party. Democrats love to cite the charts that show places like Mississippi as the most impoverished and least educated states; Republicans love to talk about the mass exodus from California and high crime and homelessness in “blue cities.”
Consider also: if you follow me on Twitter, which is probably most of my Substack audience, you are likely very familiar with the research that ties in housing regulations to homelessness, rent-burden, displacement, and crime, particularly the poverty-crime cycle. In case you are not, here is some of that research.
See where I’m going with this?
If local Democrats in those blue cities (and some blue states) focus on quietly fixing housing policy, that is unlikely to seep too far into the image of the national Democratic party, but it *is* likely to help fix the economic and crime problems of those “blue cities” and take away the meat from a currently powerful Republican line of attack.
Synthesizing YIMBYism and Popularism: the Effective YIMBYism Playbook
In other words, I do believe there is a way for YIMBY Democrats to have our cake and eat it, too. We need to avoid making housing a national issue and focus our attention locally. Let national Democrats talk about things that are actually popular, which sadly does not include YIMBYism.
But if we quietly (1) reform YIMBY messaging to focus more on the economic aspects in more culturally conservative areas, (2) get YIMBYs elected locally in places like California where there is simultaneously a demand and a need for YIMBY policy, and (3) implement local housing policy reforms, it is very possible that the outcome will be improved housing policy at the local level AND perhaps a national improvement in Democratic fortunes as “blue cities” change from being a lightning-rod for criticism to an image of what successful Democratic governance looks like.